Alex is presenting findings: a serial offender’s DNA appears in 0.05% of a city’s 6 million residents. A citywide DNA database of 25,000 individuals is scanned. How many suspect matches are expected, and if the top 400 persons with strongest profiles are reviewed, how many would statistically match?

Sun, 03 May 2026 14:57:15 +0000

Title: Citywide DNA Match Analysis: Understanding Rare DNA Matches in a Serial Offender Investigation --- Introduction
In a groundbreaking development, investigative scientists have identified a serial offender whose DNA profile appears in just 0.05% of a city’s population of 6 million residents. As part of an extensive forensic database scan, law enforcement agencies have uncovered a potential match set from a curated DNA database of 25,000 individuals. This article explores the statistical implications of such a rare DNA profile, how many suspect matches are expected from a citywide scan, and what this means when law enforcement narrows findings to the top 400 individuals by profile strength. ---